5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:13:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:09:31 GMT
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT32 KNHC 031458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 ...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE. THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS * STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * TIDNISH TO LISMORE * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE * THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT22 KNHC 031458 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE. THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS * STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * TIDNISH TO LISMORE * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE * THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 260SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.7N 70.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 120SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.8N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 49.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 52.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT42 KNHC 031459 TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH SHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 36.8N 73.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 39.7N 70.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 43.8N 66.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 49.0N 62.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 05/1200Z 52.0N 56.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000
FONT12 KNHC 031458
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 4 7 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 3 24 24 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 26 70 63 59 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 74 27 9 10 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 66 22 9 9 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 6 3 1 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 60KT 45KT 45KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 24(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 31(31) 37(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
HALIFAX NS 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 88(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X 47(47) 11(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MONCTON NB 34 X 17(17) 58(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
MONCTON NB 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 44(44) 31(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
ST JOHN NB 50 X 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 57(57) 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
EASTPORT ME 50 X 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
EASTPORT ME 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 46(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA ME 34 3 18(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
PORTLAND ME 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
CONCORD NH 34 7 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BOSTON MA 34 21 23(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BOSTON MA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 59 32(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
HYANNIS MA 50 4 42(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
HYANNIS MA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 76 22(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
NANTUCKET MA 50 11 63(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
NANTUCKET MA 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 52 9(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HARTFORD CT 34 21 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
MONTAUK POINT 34 69 3(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
MONTAUK POINT 50 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW YORK CITY 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
NEWARK NJ 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
TRENTON NJ 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BALTIMORE MD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WASHINGTON DC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:13:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:09:31 GMT
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:08 GMT
Issued at 1145 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 1144 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 1140 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 1137 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 844 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 837 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Issued at 813 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:12:11 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:53 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:53 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:55 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:04 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:17 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:26 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:59 GMT
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT33 KNHC 031442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 66.4W ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FIONA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT23 KNHC 031442 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 66.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 66.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.6N 65.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.1N 61.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT43 KNHC 031442 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO TAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW. FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.0N 66.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 30.6N 65.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 38.1N 61.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000
FONT13 KNHC 031442
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 4 11 18 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 30 35 44 44 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 67 57 42 35 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 4 3 3 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 3 2 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 4 35(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:44:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:09:55 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:43:40 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:04 GMT
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:17 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 285
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
