Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 37

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031458
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... 


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND
REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF
CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH
MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER
MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane EARL Forecast/Advisory Number 37

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT22 KNHC 031458
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND
REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF
CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH
MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  73.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 260SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  73.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N  73.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.7N  70.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE 120SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.8N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 49.0N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 52.0N  56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 37

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031459
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010


SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A
HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND
THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 36.8N  73.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 39.7N  70.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 43.8N  66.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 49.0N  62.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 52.0N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

000
FONT12 KNHC 031458
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      

VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       4       7      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       3      24      24      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  26      70      63      59      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       74      27       9      10      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       66      22       9       9      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        6       3       1       1      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       1      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    60KT    45KT    45KT    NA      NA      NA  


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)  24(24)   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   6( 6)  30(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   2( 2)  25(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

HALIFAX NS     34  X  31(31)  37(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   2( 2)  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X  88(88)   3(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X  47(47)  11(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

MONCTON NB     34  X  17(17)  58(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MONCTON NB     50  X   1( 1)  30(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ST JOHN NB     34  X  44(44)  31(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   7( 7)  24(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

EASTPORT ME    34  X  57(57)   8(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
EASTPORT ME    50  X  14(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  1  46(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

AUGUSTA ME     34  3  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

PORTLAND ME    34  5  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

CONCORD NH     34  7   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

BOSTON MA      34 21  23(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BOSTON MA      50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34 59  32(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
HYANNIS MA     50  4  42(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34 76  22(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
NANTUCKET MA   50 11  63(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NANTUCKET MA   64  1  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PROVIDENCE RI  34 52   9(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HARTFORD CT    34 21   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

MONTAUK POINT  34 69   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
MONTAUK POINT  50 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

NEW YORK CITY  34 21   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

NEWARK NJ      34 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

TRENTON NJ     34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ATLANTIC CITY  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

BALTIMORE MD   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

DOVER DE       34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WASHINGTON DC  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 29   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

RICHMOND VA    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane EARL Graphics


Hurricane EARL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:13:00 GMT

Hurricane EARL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:09:31 GMT

Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:08 GMT

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Issued at 1145 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 1144 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at 1140 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for Caribou, ME

Issued at 1137 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at 844 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at 837 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane Local Statement for Portland, ME

Issued at 813 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010


Hurricane EARL 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:12:11 GMT


Hurricane EARL Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:53 GMT


Hurricane EARL Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:53 GMT


Hurricane EARL Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:58:55 GMT


Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:04 GMT


Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:17 GMT


Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:26 GMT


Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:20:59 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT33 KNHC 031442
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL082010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 66.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FIONA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast/Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT23 KNHC 031442
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  66.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  66.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  66.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.6N  65.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.7N  64.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.1N  61.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N  66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

000
WTNT43 KNHC 031442
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO
TAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
DRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW.

FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE
MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 29.0N  66.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 30.6N  65.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 32.7N  64.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 38.1N  61.2W    25 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

000
FONT13 KNHC 031442
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      

VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       4      11      18      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 30      35      44      44      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  67      57      42      35      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE        1       4       3       3      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       4       3       2      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    NA      NA      NA  


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  4  35(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
BERMUDA        50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BERMUDA        64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics


Tropical Storm FIONA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:44:27 GMT

Tropical Storm FIONA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:09:55 GMT

Tropical Storm FIONA 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:43:40 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:42:12 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:04 GMT


Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:10:17 GMT


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 285
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE